Best of BP: Bryan Grosnick’s Model Portfolio for 2024

As I’ve detailed, briefly, in the past, I’m re-entering the fantasy baseball space after a bit of a layoff. And when competing in a space that features some of the most talented fantasy minds in the industry, does it make sense to try and set myself apart?

Should I embrace my inner (certainly not outer) non-conformist and zig where others zag? Maybe I should go 60/40 with an emphasis on pitching to try and sweep those categories while looking to be mid at the plate? Maybe an extreme no-stars approach to spread productivity across the field?

Or should I default to the wisdom of crowds, or look to the other experts for guidance? Should I hew closer to ADP and try to balance my pref list against the industry consensus? Should I seek out the safest bets and hope my peers get too weird for their own good?

… I think I’ll take the middle road. How about I share a couple of my core fantasy values with you, and we’ll see how that affects my model portfolio for the year: One that I think accurately reflects my approach in the real world.

BRYAN’S FANTASY CORE VALUE #1: DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, TRUST A PITCHER

Like, I get it. We’re required to populate both halves of a baseball team here. But injuries are too frequent for me to feel comfortable with anyone who throws a baseball for a living. Like mentioned above, I briefly considered doing a 50/50 or 60/40 cost split to try and dominate the pitching side of things … and I just can’t do it. I feel like it’d be asking for an ulcer. I swept back the other way and ran a 70/30 hitting split of cost, because I could easily see one player’s zipper and another’s shoulder impingement ruining my year. If we were starting this process two months ago, I would’ve racked up shares in Kodai Senga; by today, I’d be more than a little devastated. I’ll stick with the slightly surer thing, and that’s how I came to this offensive crew.

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BRYAN’S FANTASY CORE VALUE #2: INVEST IN GREATNESS, NOT MEDIOCRITY

I love the idea of taking a strengths-based approach to life. If you’re great at something, focus on that rather than trying to shore up all your weaknesses. This leads me to taking more of a stars-and-scrubs approach to team-building, while also trying to look for contributors with big skills (or big categories) versus your typical all-rounders.

The cornerstone of this team is the Betts-and-Rodriguez combination. I really like the idea of pulling in three of the top five projected fantasy contributors for this year, so I did that. (More on the third guy later.) Betts is wildly consistent, brings surprising versatility due to his new role as the Dodgers’ everyday shortstop, and sits in an unbelievably good lineup. Julio, meanwhile, is a world-class roto producer who should give me good-to-great stats in all five categories, and continues to grow into his excellence.

From here, I worked to fill out my roster with more affordable options after dropping half my stack on these two players, and after shopping the clearance rack, I was able to put together enough leftover money to invest in a high-upside, medium-floor first baseman. I looked at the available options around the price point and settled on Bryce Harper. I’ve been a Harper guy over the last decade or more: Yes, I thought he’d have a superior career to Mike Trout even after their first few seasons. He’s a sneaky batting average play, especially at his position, and his raw power should start to come back post-injury. I want a repeat of his 2021 season, but will be happy with a repeat of 2023.

BRYAN’S FANTASY CORE VALUE #3: AVOID ROOKIE HITTERS (THAT ARE NOT WYATT LANGFORD)

I picked Oneil Cruz and Wyatt Langford as my only other real major investments as hitters, not because of hype but because of track record. (And maybe a little bit of hype, fine.) Langford has outrageous batted-ball data, and I have a feeling that the Tigers will historically be sobbing into their awful coneys over the drafting of Max Clark instead of the former Gator. I don’t even hold his terrible choice of university against him! Meanwhile, Cruz could have the season that everyone thinks Elly De La Cruz is going to have. Cruz II: Cruz Control.

I have two second-year hitters who’ve done more to establish themselves as well in Masataka Yoshida and Christopher Morel. Morel certainly hasn’t established himself as a defender anywhere … but I have faith he’ll hit when he’s in the lineup. Yoshida is another play for batting average, helping me address some uglier lines from other players.

Isaac Paredes and Esteury Ruiz are deeply flawed players who can help shore up particular categories (HR and SB). Alejandro Kirk, I’m hoping, will see a little bounceback and probably has a clearer path to playing time after Danny Jansen‘s injury. Byron Buxton is fine if you don’t plan on him playing every day, and I really want to see Kris Bryant succeed, and I’ll always feel okay about drafting middle-of-the-order hitters in Colorado.

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On to the hurlers!

BRYAN’S FANTASY CORE VALUE #4: FORGET ABOUT SAVES, BUT NOT RELIEF PITCHERS

I spent eight bucks on four relief pitchers, valuing roster space over cash when it comes to my stoppers. I can’t in good conscience try and invest in sure-fire closers after seeing so many of them go down to injury in the preseason. I’d love to invest big in Josh Hader or Edwin Diaz, because they bring great rates to the table as well as those precious saves, but I can’t do it. Instead, I wanted to pick pitchers who I think will be both effective and cost-effective, who might be in line for future save chances. That means Orion Kerkering in Philadelphia and Yennier Cano in Baltimore.

Mason Miller is his own thing. I drafted him in the eighth round of the BP Fantasy League draft, because I will go down with this ship. (Also, Bret Sayre created a run on closers, and I got scared.) I will enjoy a handful of glorious innings from him before he ascends to a higher plane of existence or his arm explodes. Both are equally likely. Robert Suarez is a fine closer, and I hope that by drafting him, I do not place last in saves, but I will live if I do.

BRYAN’S FANTASY CORE VALUE #5: DO NOT IGNORE BULK WHILE CHASING RATES

I have five starting pitchers here, and while I’m not sure they’re exactly low-injury risks, they aren’t the worst starters when it comes to eating innings. I’m bought into Sean Manaea‘s improvements in pitches from his time in San Francisco, and I think Cole Ragans is a stud based on what he’s done in Kansas City. Spencer Strider is my third top-five player on this team. I actually wanted to avoid him because he seems to be in everyone’s model portfolio … but he’s in everyone’s model portfolio because he’s too good to pass up. He’s the most stable source of excellence in a position where those two things don’t really go together. Hunter Brown and Shane Bieber are there because I think they are both able to outperform projections for 2024, and that’s the name of the game for your middle-value guys. If Brown and Ragans stay healthy, hopefully I can squeeze 150 innings out of each of them, as they’re no longer rookies and the leash should be loosened a bit.

All in all, I think this is a solid portfolio, hewing to a bit of a stars-and-scrubs approach. In a perfect world, all of my pitching bets hit, and I’m in the middle of the pack for run prevention categories, while my offense carries this team to victory. In reality? We’ll wait and see, but hopefully I can take home some lessons for 2025.